With all the snow sitting around and Austin’s flood history, it’s hard to believe that there’s still only a slight chance for flooding this year.
Eric Johnson/photodesk@austindailyherald.com

This winter may have hit hard, but it looks like it will go out easy.

There’s little chance Mower County could get hit by floods based on the National Weather Service’s current flooding forecast.

“We’re at less than 5 percent chance of minor flooding,” said Amy Lammey, Mower County Emergency Management Coordinator.

Lammey said though Mower County has had more snow than nearby areas, flooding forecasts put the county’s precipitation and chance to flood at about average. That is, as long as the snow melts at a gradual pace.

According to NWS meteorologists, the area snow will melt at a slow pace as long as temperatures don’t rise above the mid-40s. Temperatures can get above freezing during the day with  no problem, but need to get back below freezing at night in order to halt the melt, according to Tom Stangeland, NWS hydrometeorological technician out of La Crosse.

“When we start looking at the hydrographs, we actually see the water going up and down during the day,” he said.

Lammey said the county is monitoring creeks, rivers, streams and storage areas to watch for signs of flooding. Law enforcement is also checking waterways for signs of ice jams and other problems, and the county has stockpiled sand bags and other supplies in case of flooding.

That likely won’t be a problem, as the county’s creeks, streams and storage ways are on the low side at the moment, which means they can absorb more water and runoff.

That means the deep freeze which has affected water pipes in Austin will have a place to go if it melts fast, according to meteorologists. Though the freeze could run directly into the river under a rapid melt, water levels are low enough to prevent anything more than minor flooding.

That could change if Mower County or central Minnesota gets a bunch of precipitation this month. Meteorologists say the area should get about 2 to 3 inches of precipitation in March, which is about average for this time of year. Yet if temperatures rise to create more rain than snow, it could bring create a lot of issues and far more rapid melting, according to meteorologists.

Much of the area’s snow will likely melt during the next week, when temperatures are expected to get as high as 43 on Monday before maintaining highs in the mid-30s throughout the week until Friday.

“As soon as we get a melt that goes well, that’s OK,” Stangeland said.

 Melting not doing much for frozen pipes

Austin may be in for a gradual snow melt, which won’t help the city’s frozen pipes issue any time soon.

“It all depends on the warmth,” Austin Utilities General Manager Mark Nibaur said.

Austin Utilities is aware of 113 active frozen waterlines this week, but that number could be high as residents may not report unfrozen pipes.

Help may not come soon for people still suffering from frozen pipes. Temperatures in the low 40s and mid-30s next week likely won’t do much to unthaw the area’s deep frost and pipes may not thaw until later in March or April.

Nibaur recommends residents take their water temperature and leave water running if it drops below 40 degrees. Water lines usually run at about 50 degrees during the winter.