Survey: Midwest economy improves despite pandemic

Published 6:30 am Wednesday, September 2, 2020

OMAHA, Neb. — The rural economy in Middle America showed improvement in August, despite the effects of a global pandemic and a rare devastating wind storm earlier in the month, according to a monthly survey of nine Midwest and Plains states released Tuesday.

The overall index for the region jumped to 60 in August from July’s 57.4, and the region’s employment index moved above growth neutral 50 for the first time since January, coming in at 54.8 for August, compared with 48.5 in July. The survey results are compiled into a collection of indexes ranging from zero to 100. Any score above 50 suggests growth, while a score below 50 suggests decline.

Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey, said four of five supply managers reported difficulty hiring qualified workers — even though the unemployment rate remains higher than before the coronavirus outbreak.

Email newsletter signup

The confidence index climbed to a strong 73.3 — its highest level since February 2018 — from 68.3 in July. The confidence index measures business leaders’ expectations for the economy over the next six months.

“Since our survey was conducted after August’s derecho, I expected to record weaker business confidence,” Goss said. “However, our survey indicates that the region’s manufacturing sector was spared much of the negative impacts.”

The monthly survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Minnesota: Minnesota’s overall index slipped to 54.5 from 54.7 in July. Components of the survey were: new orders at 70.5, production or sales at 61.3, delivery lead time at 51.6, inventories at 42.4, and employment at 46.7. “According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, since the onset of COVID-19, the state’s manufacturing sector has lost approximately 20,000 jobs, a decline of 6.2 percent with metal products manufacturers accounting for a large share of the losses,” Goss said.