MINNEAPOLIS — Bird flu took a bite out of the turkey supply. Heavy rain washed out the pumpkin crop. Yet Thanksgiving groceries likely won’t cost Americans much more than last year, and nobody should have to miss gobbling down their favorite holiday foods.

The holiday season perennially generates stories about some items being in short supply or dramatically pricier, but markets have a way of balancing themselves out, particularly around this meal.

So even though bird flu wiped out 8 million turkeys — driving production down and wholesale prices up — you’re in no danger missing out. These birds don’t play by the usual rules of supply and demand. That’s because one of the most effective things grocers can do to lure holiday shoppers is offer cheap turkeys, even selling them at a loss, says Richard Volpe, a professor at Cal Poly in San Luis Obispo, California, and former retail food price economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Further shielding consumers is that most of the birds destined to grace Thanksgiving tables this year already were born, slaughtered and frozen before the outbreak, says Thomas Elam, president of FarmEcon LLC, a consultant to the poultry industry. Frozen whole turkeys make up as much as three-quarters of the Thanksgiving market.

In fact, retail prices for frozen birds have been softening, according to a USDA weekly supermarket survey.