The tricky side to foretelling the future
Published 7:55 am Sunday, July 12, 2015
With Tuesdays All Star game, Major League Baseball has reached the midway point of the 2015 season. With that, I’m revisiting some of the predictions I made with some other folks before the season got underway.
I hate to admit that my season predictions first published in the April 3 Spotlight section are not faring so well thus far.
Here’s a look at some of the predictions the group made at the beginning of the season and how they’ve fared thus far:
My prediction: The Twins will win more games than the Yankees
This one will be a tossup. As of Wednesday, I was right: The Twins’ 45 wins narrowly topped the Yankees 44.
But to my surprise, both teams are in contention. When I wrote this column, the Yankees were in first place in the American League East and the Twins were in second place in the Central.
While that prediction for the Twins to win more games could still come true, I predicted the Yankees and Twins to both fight to stay around or below .500 records: “They likely won’t contend, but they should be fun to watch,” I wrote of the Twins in April.
Now they’re in second place and chasing a Wild Card bid, at least at the midway point.
Frankly, most of my American League picks have proved off thus far. My Rookie of the Year prediction, the Red Sox Rusney Castillo, has spent significant time hurt or in the minors and hit .230 in his first 26 games. The Mariners, who I predicted to go to the World Series, are 10 games back of the Houston Astros in the West. The Red Sox, who I predicted to win the East, are in last place.
I’ve done better in the National League, where my predicted division winners — Dodgers in the West, Nationals in the East and Cardinals in the Central — are all first, and one of my two Wild Card Picks, the Pirates, would make the playoffs if the season ended today, while the Giants — my other Wild Card pic — are neck-in-neck with the Mets for the second spot.
My NL ROY pick, Dodger Joc Pederson, is one of the front runners for the award, along with Cub Kris Bryant.
Austin attorney Paul Spyhalski’s prediction: The Houston Astros will be a .500 team.
This is looking to be a lead candidate in for the “hit the nail on the head” pick. Not only have the Astros improved on their 70-92, fourth place finish from 2014, the Astros have the best record in the American League at 49-37, as of Wednesday. It’d be shocking to see them fall below .500 at this point. His other prediction that Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will be traded is still a good candidate to happen later this month, as Colorado is in last place in the NL West.
The Herald’s Eric Johnson, prediction: The Twins will make the playoffs.
Eric is the second candidate for most spot-on prediction. Eric and I chatted about this one and while I was hopeful it would happen, I didn’t necessarily believe it. But the Twins are in contention for a Central Division title or a Wild Card spot at the halfway point. However, Eric’s prediction about catcher Kurt Suzuki leading the Twins in hitting has run afoul thanks to Suzuki’s .218 average.
Austin attorney Dan Donnelly’s predictions:
•Kyle Gibson will lead the Twins staff in wins. Gibson has been a reliable starter with a 3.04 ERA, and his six wins trailed only Phil Hughes’ seven as of Tuesday.
•Ricky Nolasco will lead in losses. To my surprise, this one actually seems unlikely. Somehow Nolasco pitched to a woeful 5.51 ERA but managed to win five games and only lose one before getting hurt. He’s now set to have ankle surgery,
•Oswaldo Arcia will lead the Twins in homeruns. Arcia has been injured much of the year. Second baseman Brian Dozer leads the Twins with 17 bombs as of Wednesday.
•Joe Mauer will lead the Twins in batting average. Of the Twins with more than 100 at bats, Mauer’s .278 — as of Wednesday — trailed only Eduardo Nunez and his .291, albeit Nunez has 103 at-bats to Mauer’s 306.