Several factors are aligning to leave many Mower County farmers optimistic about their prospects for the 2015 growing season and harvest, but crop prices and weather from now through harvest could be the deciding factors.

“All in all as crops years go, it’s lining up to be one of the better ones we’ve had,” said Marlin Fay, who farms corn and soybeans in the Grand Meadow area.

Much of the corn in Mower County recently began to tassel, which farmers say is right on schedule, and they say beans are looking good too.

Part of the reason for a good outlook now is farmers got in the fields at the right time this spring. Ron Frank said he finished planting this spring about two to three weeks earlier than the past few years, which is closer to an average spring.

“We’re pretty satisfied for this year compared to what we’ve had, so things are looking good,” said Frank, who farms corn and soybeans near Lyle.

Heating up

At times this season, conditions have been a bit wet in parts of the county.

“Earlier, there were some concerns about excessive moisture,” Brownsdale farmer Alan Akkerman said,

That sentiment was echoed by Jack Bergstrom, who farms corn, soybeans and hay near Brownsdale.

“The rains have come a little heavy,” he said, noting that he got some washout in areas and planted cover crops to compensate in spots.

After some cool, damp weather early, farmers said conditions have been pretty ideal of late.

In the Lyle area, Frank said he’s seen about 17.5 inches of rain since April 1, but the rains have been spread out enough that there hasn’t been much flooding, aside from a few pockets of heavier rains within the county.

Bergstrom said the moisture has been adequate this year; however, rains have made it difficult for him to harvest hay.

Frank and Fay were pleased with the highs of 80 to 90 in recent days, especially since there’s moisture in the ground after recent rains and it’s been relatively humid.

Moving forward, farmers want two key things: heat and well-timed rains.

“Going forward, as long as we get some heat and little bit of rain, it’s looking like a good crop out there,” Bergstrom said.

In recent years, Minnesota has dried out from fair time through Labor Day, which is a chief concern. Corn and soybeans both need timely rains during maturity to maximize yields.

“It would be nice that the rains would continue on,” Bergstrom said. “Save a little bit of this water we got now. In August it would be ideal.”

Dry conditions can damage the tasseling corn over the next several weeks, so Fay was hoping for some well-timed rains — as long as its nothing too heavy.

“If we just get a few good showers between now and the end of August on the corn, that will pretty much make the corn,” Fay said. “It’s pretty resilient to dry weather after that.”

Though a dry spell or early frost could affect soybean and corn production, Fay and others are optimistic for good yields if conditions stay strong.

“Right now, we’re really optimistic,” he said.

Akkerman said he’s beginning to see a few diseases and plans for a few applications on the horizon to take care of the corn and soybean diseases, but he noted that’s not altogether uncommon. He’s also scouting his fields to monitor for insects and to control weeds, but he too said to date this growing season is looking better than the past few years.

“Personally, I’m optimistic about crops and the market prices,” he said.

A matter of prices

As always, costs will be key, especially on the corn side.

Despite the good year for crops, Frank said prices of about $3.75 or $3.80 per bushel would be the break-even point for most farmers.

“We need a good crop just to get our cash flows up to where we’re going to be breaking even,” he said.

Based on a July 10 report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected 2015-16 corn to range from $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel of corn — an average of $3.75 per bushel, which is up from June’s estimate of $3.50 per bushel.

Corn in the $4 to $5 per bushel range would put most farmers in the black, and Fay hoped prices would reach $4.50.

“They really need to help us reach our break even point,” Fay said.

A USDA report slated for Aug. 12 could be telling. Many area farmers are watching conditions and projected yields from parts of Iowa, Missouri and Illinois that were hit by flooding. Conditions and production in that region is expected to affect corn prices.

“That’s a very big part of marketing is you need to … be aware of what is happening as far as crop production nationwide, even worldwide,” Akkerman said.

Akkerman noted corn prices can be up and down since it’s based on traders, but he said it’s important to get an opportunity to take advantage when corn reaches higher prices. Corn recently topped $4, but Akkerman said it was short-lived, though he expects more opportunities in coming months.

Though several factors still have to align, farmers were pleased with what they’ve seen so far and are hoping it will continue.

“We’re looking forward to a good harvest,” Fay said.