As Minnesota’s census data is released over the next few weeks, local officials will be busy figuring out how, if at all, the county’s population shift will affect residents.

Mower County’s population is projected to have gone down by more than 250 people, according to Census Bureau estimates released Monday. The county’s projected July 2010 population was 38,356, slightly down from the 38,603 people the 2000 census showed lived in Mower County.

These numbers aren’t based on the 2010 census but on yearly estimates, which track the net migration of people around the U.S. and Puerto Rico as well as national estimates of deaths over the past 10 years.

While a decline is never good news, it’s a lot better than what County Coordinator Craig Oscarson was expecting. According to Oscarson, county officials heard in 2005 that Mower County’s population could decline by as much as 1,000 people from 2000 to 2010. A 250 person shift, while important, might not affect the economy or county funding as much.

“The good news: It’s relatively stable,” Oscarson said of the estimated drop in population. “If we were losing a large population block, then it would be a bigger cause of concern.”

Since the estimates don’t break down the population into key demographics, like age and job type, Oscarson said it would be difficult to see whether the county’s finances would be affected.

“If we’re losing a population basis that has been a positive contributor to our tax base, then it can be negative,” he said.

Still, if census numbers show a population decline in the area, odds are some cities would want to appeal the Census Bureau’s findings. That’s what Craig Hoium, Austin’s Community Development Director, thinks would happen if Austin were shown to have lost people between 2000 and 2010.

“Obviously, you don’t want to see your population reduce,” Hoium said. “ I know for a fact that the number of jobs (here) have increased for the last several years.”

A 2009 demographics report commissioned by Austin Public Schools shows an increasing enrollment in Austin by about 300 to 400 students in the next five years based on a large spike in the county’s birth rate.

“We should be going on an upward trend,” Hoium said.

Mower County’s estimated drop in population isn’t as severe as Freeborn County’s which estimates show shrunk from about 32,500 to 30,900. Estimates show Steele County’s grown from about 33,700 people in 2000 to more than 36,500, which pales in comparison to Olmsted County’s growth of more than 20,000 people over the past 10 years to a projected population of 145,200.

The Census Bureau will compare Monday’s estimates with the official 2010 census results once every state’s data has been released. Minnesota’s census data has not been released yet, but is expected by April 1.