Flooding unlikely without rain

Published 8:02 am Thursday, March 17, 2011

Except for a few shaded areas, much of the snow along the Cedar River is already gone. With rain throughout next week, all the snow in southeastern Minnesota could be gone, according to the National Weather Service. -- Matt Peterson/matt.peterson@austindailyherald.com

The Cedar River’s depth is expected to peak on Saturday, March 19. However, it won’t likely reach the flood stage.

Officials at the National Weather Service in LaCrosse, Wis., think nearly all the snow on the ground could be gone after this weekend, which may cause the spike in river depth.

“I would think most of your snowfall would be gone by Saturday,” said Dan Baumgardt, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in LaCrosse.

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Snow melt alone may push the Cedar’s depth to 11.7 feet on Saturday, which is about four feet shy of the flood stage. The Cedar’s current depth is about four and a half feet.

Although rain is expected almost every day next week, Baumgardt doesn’t think that will have an affect on the river stage.

“It might wet the ground, but that’s about it,” he said.

If a significant amount of frost were still in the ground, flooding could be more of a concern. But this year’s frost depth was not very deep, and the ground has thawed in most areas.

Baumgardt said if a fork can easily be stuck into the ground, which it currently can, the frost is mostly gone. Therefore, any rain Austin receives will soak into the ground instead of running directly into the river.

NWS officials are still not sure how much of next week’s storm will move through Minnesota or Illinois, however. Baumgardt said Austin would have to receive more than a half inch of rain in a short period to cause any flooding.

Other flooding concerns such as ice jams are unlikely, as well. Once the river is open and flowing, the chance of ice jams subsides.

As for the rest of the winter and into spring, Baumgardt suspects southern Minnesota won’t see anymore snow.

“We seem to have switched to a little bit warmer regime,” he said.