By JASON SCHOONOVER and TRISHA MARCZAK

Be careful what you wish for.

That could be the lesson learned from the recent skyrocketing costs of gasoline throughout the nation.

According to petroleum analyst Patrick DeHaan of gasbuddy.com, there are a combination of factors at work that are driving up prices — including a recovering economy.

An improved economy means more people are out consuming gasoline throughout the nation. The increased demand, paired with developing countries’ growing gasoline consumer base, is playing a large role in the climbing prices.

“We’re likely close to seeing, or we already have seen our nation’s demand peak for gasoline,” DeHaan said. “But it’s the growing countries that could put pressure on oil prices.”

With more people consuming gasoline around the globe, the world’s supply of crude oil is slowly diminishing. Those two factors combined are creating a perfect storm for drivers at the pump.

“They are seeing a big increase in oil demand there (China) and so far when you have two countries that are seeing increases in demand, supply tends to drop, since crude oil is unfortunately not in unlimited supply.”

DeHaan said prices at the pump this summer could jump between $3.50 and $4 a gallon. For February, gas prices are expected to round off at around $3.20, with more significant rises going into play around the beginning or March.

As of Friday, gas prices sat at an average $3.18 — compared to the nation’s average of $3.10. Prices in Minnesota are higher at this point because of the state’s built-up supply, DeHaan said.

“The Midwest has lightly under average supply in terms of gasoline for this time of year,” he said. “Areas in the Midwest are seeing slightly lower than average inventories, compared to areas of the Rockies, which are exceptionally low in Utah and Wyoming.”

Prices in Colorado, for example, are sitting at around $2.90 a gallon.

With gasoline prices not expected to drop anytime soon, DeHaan said it’s likely more people than ever will start to shop around for ways to protect their pocketbooks.

“People will be looking for those alternative sources and moving to them sooner.” he said.

DeHaan said the only way gas prices will go down is if the economy heads downhill once again, which would mean that expenses would keep people from consuming as much gasoline.

‘A roller coaster ride’

Even though some people are talking about gas hitting $5 a gallon by next winter, others question how experts are predicting large increases.

Jeff Trimble, co-owner of Trimble’s Cycle­ Center, said it’s difficult to predict gas prices. Sometimes when the cost of a barrel of gasoline goes up, the price of gas actually goes down.

“It’s a roller coaster ride,” he said. Trimble’s is the only full-service gas station in Austin.

Trimble said he expects prices to top out near $4 a gallon before going back to around $3.

“I’d really be surprised if it got to $5 a gallon,” Trimble said.

“I think they’re just scaring us into thinking $3 a gallon is a bargain,” he added. He noted $3 is already too high.

At the same time, high gas prices may lead more people to purchase mopeds from Trimble’s to save on gas prices. But that’s not something Trimble necessarily wants.

“I don’t want to see $5 gas just to help that,” he said.

Trimble said the gas prices would be especially hard on commuters. He said people would have to cut in other areas because they still need to get to work.

“I really think it’s going to hurt some of these families that want to take family vacations,” he said. “It’s going to cut into spending money.”

Mike Ankeny, owner of Ankeny’s Mini Mart, said the high prices may have an impact on those unnecessary drives people make. But he doesn’t expect to hear the extra grumbling of consumers who are paying a bit more at the pump.

“More people are aware of what’s happening, so you don’t get the complaints you used to,” he said.

As far as his business goes, he think, long-term, he’ll have to go through the pains of increasing gasoline costs like anyone else.

“As far as worries go, it’s going to impact everyone,” he said. “As far as prices continuing to go up, a lot of businesses now, or any freight or garbage services, they’re all adding fuel surcharges.”

‘A huge impact’

While the economy may be slowly improving, the city and county have not seen the benefits yet. In fact, increased gas prices will strain budgets even more.

“It’s a huge impact,” said County Coordinator Craig Oscarson.

The county recently estimated a $2 a gallon increase in gas would mean and additional $215,000 in the county’s budget over a whole year.

That’s money the county doesn’t have available, especially with cuts to County Program Aid expected.

“It’s going to be a tough pill for the board and public to swallow,” Oscarson said.

The county did not budget for such an increase. If prices increase as expected, Oscarson said the county board will need to discuss ways to come up with the additional costs.

Likewise, the city of Austin will have to find ways to continue providing core services. Tom Dankert, Director of Administrative Services said the streets department will still have to clean snow, and the Austin Police Department will continue to do its job.

“We’re not going to stop plowing snow or stop patrolling the streets if gas goes up,” he said.

The Austin-Mower County Area Transit Authority will continue to drive the same routes. However, Dankert said the city will look for other areas to cut. For example, the city may cut grass fewer times throughout the spring and summer.

Increased gas prices are nothing new. AMCAT’s budget fuel costs jumped from $69,000 in 2009 to $80,000 in 2010 — a 23 percent increase. The city budgeted $76,100 in 2011, but actual costs are expected to exceed that if prices rise as predicted.

Trisha Marczak and Jason Schoonover contributed to this story.