Instead of "Rain, rain, go away," Mower County farmers want it to stay.

Saturday, November 20, 1999

Instead of "Rain, rain, go away," Mower County farmers want it to stay.

Friday’s light showers were a tease. What the rich farm fields of Mower County needs is a good soaking shower.

That would allow growers to apply fertilizer and herbicides to their fields. The moisture is needed to allow the chemicals to activate and do their job of recharging the soil and protecting it for next year’s crops.

Rain is welcome in Mower County in the aftermath of a harvest that left more questions about agriculture’s short-term future than it did answers.

Everywhere one looks, the harvest is complete and the fields bare.

The cycle is complete. The coal-black ground that was filled last spring with seed, grew into fields of green plants in the summer.

The plant-green hues gave way to brown and then yellow and gold, when the harvest began.

Now, they are black again after fall tillage turned over the soil once again.

One thing missing is the application of fall chemicals. The ground has been too dry for that and, in some cases, farmers have cut back on their expenses and simply decided not to apply chemicals because of the depressed grain prices.

What kind of harvest was it?

"There was a lot more variation in the yields on the corn and beans harvested in Mower County," said Dave Quinlan, Mower County Extension Service educator. "The yields were still very good, but there was quite a range throughout the county."

According to Quinlan, corn yields ranged from 120 to 170 bushels per acre and soybean yields ranged from 30 to 55 bushels per acre. A year ago, the soybean yields averaged a healthy 50 to 60 bushels per acre.

Lack of storage for this year’s crop saw storage on the ground at Adams, Elkton, Blooming Prairie and London, but despite the depressed cash prices, grain was being moved throughout the harvest and still is.

Although the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service is still tallying the state’s harvest this fall, forecasts indicate both corn and beans were "near bin-busters."

Michael Hunst, state statistician, forecasts the state’s corn production at the 978.2 million bushels mark. That would be 54.6 million bushels down from last year’s record corn harvest in Minnesota, making the 1999 harvest the second largest in history.

Soybean production is forecast at 282.9 million bushels or one percent less than last year’s record-setting total in 1998.

Hunst predicted the final state average corn yield at 146 bushels per acre and the final state average soybean yield at 41 bushels per acre.

Meanwhile, U.S. corn grain production is forecast at 9.54 billion bushels, down 2 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 134 bushels per acre nationally.

The projected U.S. total would make it the third largest corn crop in the nation’s history.

Soybean production is expected to reach the 2.677 billion mark nationally. That would be 2 percent less than 1998’s 2.74 billion bushels. Soybean yields are estimated at 36 bushels per acre nationally.

When those figures were announced, commodity prices fell further as stockpiling of grain grew across the nation.

Surplus stockpiles of grain are expected to increase and because forecasters are predicting weak prospects for exports and farm income, there is more gloom and doom ahead in agriculture in 2000.

Quinlan was asked to assess farmers’ attitude as the last year of the century comes to an end and so many mixed signals lie ahead.

"I’m sure they are real concerned that there will be some rebound in agriculture," he said. "They did get a decent yield this fall and the government payments will help, but they have to be wondering ‘How do we make things cash flow?’"

"I don’s sense any panic among them, but I do sense they are concerned about what lies ahead in 2000 for them," he said.

Market analysts, however, continue to say there is little change for significant price gains soon.

Short of a widespread weather disaster – and who really wants that – another major change in U.S. farm policy – for instance, acreage set asides – will be needed as a new century begins.